The projection was one of many published on Thursday, as part of the IMF board’s conclusion of consultations with Hungary and its proposal for post-programme monitoring.
The IMF puts average annual inflation in Hungary at 4.1 percent in 2011, over the 3-3.5 percent government projection.
The monetary fund estimated Hungary’s general government deficit, calculated with EU methodology, to reach 4.0 percent of GDP in 2010, slightly over the government’s 3.8 percent target.
IMF projects a 5.6 percent surplus for 2011 as against the government’s target for a deficit just below 3 percent. The IMF projection calculates with the effect of assets transferred from Hungary’s private pension pillar to the state pension pillar.
Christoph Rosenberg, who led the IMF delegation to Hungary for talks last year, said on Thursday that due to its high external indebtedness and high level of state debt Hungary was vulnerable, adding that the IMF therefore sees the Hungarian government’s economic strategy as “highly risky.” He said that since the current data suggest that the government’s fiscal targets could not be sustained he was looking forward to seeing further data.